Deduct registered voters without photo id in these districts and likely Latino participation drops even more: Hispanic Republicans of Texas decline to comment
Texas Republicans touted the triumph of five Hispanic candidates in the 2010 elections as proof that their outreach to Hispanic voters is finally bearing fruit. Leaders in the state Republican Party have hardly made a secret of the fact that they see making inroads into the Hispanic vote as a requisite to the party’s long term viability.
Today, the Texas Democratic Party took advantage of a visit to El Paso by George W. Bush’s nephew, George P., to try to poke holes in this narrative. The younger Bush is affiliated with the Hispanic Republicans of Texas, a group set up to push Latino GOP candidates.
The Dems said today that Republicans used the redistricting process this year to depopulate by 180,536 the Hispanic population in the House districts represented by Hispanic Republicans. Those six GOP members are: Raul Torres, John Garza, Larry Gonzales, Jose Aliseda, Dee Margo and Aaron Peña. QR readers will recall that Peña switched parties just prior to the legislative session.
Under the maps enacted by the Legislature, Peña lost the most Hispanics in his district – 76,539. QR readers will again recall that Peña’s district was mostly swapped with that of McAllen Democrat Veronica Gonzales. The switch was one of the aspects of the new maps red-flagged by the U.S. Department of Justice, which is challenging the granting of pre-clearance to the Texas House and congressional maps by a D.C. Court panel.
The only lawmaker of the six to see the Hispanic population in his House district increase is Aliseda – by 9,500. In a bit of irony, he’s also the only member of the group to announce that he’s not running for re-election.
(To see the complete breakdown of how the Hispanic populations decreased in these lawmakers’ districts, consult the TDP press release here.)
In addition, Democrats say that of the 127,518 registered voters in these six HD’s who show no record of having a driver’s license or DPS-issued photo ID, more than 73,000 are Hispanic.
Democrats say that the voters who lack those forms of ID are in danger of being disenfranchised because of theVoter ID law passed by Republicans in the Legislature this year. And they emphasized today that the majority of those potentially disenfranchised voters in the Hispanic Republicans’ districts are Hispanic.
Trey Newton of the Hispanic Republicans of Texas told QR this afternoon that the group would have no comment on the TDP’s press release.
State Rep. Mike Villarreal (D-San Antonio) made his own set of analyses that he shared with members of the press during session while the maps were being formulated. His conclusion was that the Hispanic House Republican candidates were winning through Anglo support and not through Hispanic support.
Today, he told QR, “Clearly the Republican leadership wanted to remove Hispanic voters from these districts. These Hispanic Republicans didn’t get a lot of Hispanic votes in the first place, and they are going to have an even harder time after Republicans slashed public education and financial aid for deserving college students.”
For now, the Legislature’s maps are on hold while a couple of Voting Rights Act reviews are conducted. It’s looking more and more likely that action in the D.C. court on pre-clearance won’t happen in time to have a permanent map in place for the March 2012 primaries.
That leaves the court panel in San Antonio (which is overseeing the other VRA review) in the position of preparing interim maps that would hold for this election cycle. Those maps might look a lot different from the maps we’ve seen from legislators. That’s because the judges are not as likely to allow the House districts they draw to vary as much from the ideal district population.
The House maps as passed by the Lege vary as much as 4.9 percent below ideal population to 5.02 percent above ideal population. That 9.92 percent variation is just below the 10 percent variability widely thought to be the absolute limit that would be allowed under a VRA review.
By the way, here’s how far the six Hispanic Republican House members’ districts vary from the ideal population:
Raul Torres: 3.29 percent above ideal population
John Garza: 2.15 percent above
Larry Gonzales: 0.98 percent below
Jose Aliseda: 2.89 percent above
Dee Margo: 4.20 percent below
Aaron Peña: 4.41 percent below